What If We Adjust 2020 Polls to Correct 2016's Errors?

One of the most common ways that political analysts predict elections is by reviewing polling data. Are the polls really accurate though? In 2016, minor polling errors led many people to believe that Hillary Clinton was the obvious favorite to win the election, some even giving the former Secretary of State a 92% chance at victory over Republican nominee Donald Trump. Due to these errors, in 2020 many people are weary to trust Biden's strong polling lead over President Trump, and rightfully so. At this point in 2016, Clinton held a double digit lead over Trump. As the election approached, her lead narrowed. On Election Day, Clinton still had a slight polling lead in several important swing states that she ended up losing. So, if we adjust 2020 polls to account for the mistakes of 2016, how well does Biden do against the incumbent President? In short, better than you might think.

Michigan

In Michigan, Biden currently holds a lead of 7.7 points. In 2016, Clinton's polling lead in the state was 3.6 points. Trump ended up carrying the state by a narrow margin of just 0.3 points. If you adjust Biden's current polling lead to accommodate that inaccuracy, Biden would still win the state by 3.8 points.

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, Biden currently has a polling lead of 5.1 points. Four years ago, Clinton's lead was at just 2.1 points. Trump went on to carry the state by 0.7 points. This difference would turn Biden's 5.1 point lead into a 2.3 point lead.

Texas

Texas's results may come as a surprise. In 2016, Trump was expected to carry Texas by a margin of 11.7 points. On Election Day, he carried the state by only 9 points. Trump currently holds a polling lead in the state of Texas of just 0.8 points. If the 2.7 point leftward shift were to take place in 2020, as it did in 2016, Biden would carry the state by 1.9 points. This would be the first time Texas voted for a Democrat on the presidential level since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Wisconsin

In 2016, Hillary Clinton was expected to carry the state of Wisconsin by 6.5 points. Despite that, Trump carried the state by 0.7 points. If this 7.2 point difference is applied to Biden's current lead, Trump would end up carrying the state by a margin of just 0.3 points.

When the polling discrepancies of the 2016 election are applied to 2020's data, Biden fairs relatively well. Well enough, in fact, to take a victory over President Donald Trump. If Biden carries every state that voted for Clinton, he would only need Michigan and Pennsylvania - along with Arizona, which he is expected to carry as well - to defeat Trump. A victory in Texas alone - again, along with all Clinton states - would result in a Biden presidency. Joe Biden has many paths to victory and while the state of Wisconsin would be helpful in this election, it is by no means a necessity for victory. All that aside, this election is not a guarantee in favor of one candidate or the other. The 2020 presidential race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is still widely considered a tossup.

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