Trump and Biden: Comparing Best Possible Election Victories

Today, we're 77 days away from the 2020 presidential election and with so many variables, there are a lot of possibilities for the election's outcome. I spend hours every day looking into past and present election data, trying to figure out every way this race for the presidency may play out. As Biden continues to gain popularity among independents and even some moderate Republicans, he has many potential paths to 270. On the contrary, we can't count out President Trump. In 2016, Trump surprised most political analysts by winning the election. Against the odds, flipping many states that were considered locked down for Hillary Clinton, Trump won the electoral college and became president. I often wonder which candidate has the most potential to achieve an electoral landslide and who's landslide victory would be bigger. Today, I'm going to dive into this and see: who has the most potential for an electoral landslide?

Disclaimer: I do not think that either of these scenarios will come to fruition. These outcomes are purely satirical and we're looking into them for fun. That said, enjoy the rest of the article!

First up, we'll be looking at the best possible victory for President Trump. An electoral landslide in favor of the president would require him to flip states that went to Hillary Clinton in 2016. Some states, like California, New York, and Maryland, as well as the District of Columbia, have little to no possibility of voting for Donald Trump. Other similar states would be Vermont, Massachusetts, and really most of New England (other than New Hampshire). In a landslide scenario, the president would take states like Minnesota, Virginia, Oregon, and Nevada, as well as Colorado and New Mexico. The best possible Trump victory would probably end up looking something like this:

Given that Biden would still be close to 200 electoral votes, I'm not sure that this could really be considered a landslide victory for Trump. This is simply the biggest possible election victory the president could receive. However, in order to achieve a victory of this size, Trump would need to significantly up his approval rating. This would require him to put an end to the COVID-19 pandemic, get the economy back on track, lower than unemployment rate back down, take on systematic racism, end attacks on the LGBTQ+ community, and much more. An election win of this size is next to impossible for President Trump. Not to mention the fact that he would need to up ad spending in historically Democratic states like Oregon, Minnesota, and New Mexico. Even Virginia, a state that has only been consistently voting for Democrats since 2008, would be difficult for Trump to flip. While narrowly possible, a victory like this for President Trump is highly unlikely.

Vice President Biden's path to a landslide victory, while easier than Trump's, would still be a difficult path. Biden is already considered the favorite to flip states that voted in favor of Trump in 2016 like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona. Biden is also polling competitively in some historically Republican states like Georgia, North Carolina, and even Texas. A landslide victory for the former vice president would likely look like this:

An election victory like this would be a true landslide. This electoral map, while unlikely on Election Day, isn't totally impossible for Biden to achieve. Biden has had a consistent polling lead in battleground states like Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. In past elections, Georgia and Texas wouldn't even have been on the table for a Democratic candidate, but Biden has gone back and forth with Trump for narrow polling leads in both states. He's also competitive in Ohio and Iowa, two states that voted strongly in favor of Trump in 2016. The fact that some of these states are as competitive as they are may indicate a large shift in our nation politically. However, Biden would need to hold up, and expand, current polling leads in states that are likely to vote in favor of Trump.

As I mentioned previously, I don’t believe either of these scenarios are likely to occur. The map on Election Day will most likely be much closer than either of these. If you enjoyed this article, click here to see my early election predictions for the 2020 presidential race broken down state by state and consider subscribing to be notified whenever I post new content!