These Six Senate Seats are Tossups in 2020

As we get closer to November's election, it's important to remember that we're voting on more than just the president. There are a total of 35 senate seats up for grabs as well, 23 Republicans and 12 Democrats. With many of these seats being extremely competitive, nobody can tell exactly which party is going to control the senate after the 2020 election. While some predict that Democrats will take control, there are others who think Republicans will maintain their majority. There are six important tossup senate races that we have to keep an eye on going into this election.

Colorado (Gardner vs Hickenlooper)

Former Governor John Hickenlooper is running against incumbent Cory Gardner for one of Colorado's senate seats in hopes of flipping the state in favor of the Democratic Party. In May, Hickenlooper was performing significantly better than Gardner in polls, holding up to an 18 point lead over the incumbent. More recently, the polls have been suggesting a far closer race, with Hickenlooper holding a single digit lead of just 6 points. As the state narrows up heading toward the election, it becomes a bigger and bigger question mark, with the Cook Political Report calling the race a tossup.

Georgia (Perdue vs Ossoff)

One of the biggest tossups of the 2020 election season, Democrat Jon Ossoff is running to unseat Georgia Senator David Perdue. In recent years, Georgia has become a tossup on many political levels, with the state also being a tossup in this years presidential race. Polls for this race don’t consistently side with one candidate or the other, with most giving either candidate a 2 or 3 point margin of victory, with one poll actually coming out even. If Democrats want to take a senate majority, this Georgia seat may be essential.

Iowa (Ernst vs Greenfield)

While the most recent polls released have been trending in favor of Democrat Theresa Greenfield, the state of Iowa is still highly contested. A poll released August 18th shows Greenfield up 3 points against incumbent Joni Ernst, however, other polls show Ernst holding similar leads. Iowa, generally a swing state, voted strongly in favor of Donald Trump in 2016 and is expected to do so again in 2020. While not impossible, it would be rather unlikely for a state to vote in favor of a Democrat on the senate level and a Republican on the Presidential level.

Maine (Collins vs Gideon)

In Maine, Sara Gideon holds a slight but consistent lead over incumbent Senator Susan Collins, with most recent polls giving Gideon between a 4 and 7 point lead. Senator Collins won her most recent election bid with around 70% of the vote, making her, at the time, one of the most popular senators in the country. Today, she has around a 52% disapproval rating in her home state. This makes her the most unpopular senator in the country, a title previously held by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. Despite that, this race is still considered a tossup.

Montana (Daines vs Bullock)

Montana's elected officials are an interesting party mix, having one Democratic senator and one Republican senator, a Democratic governor, and generally voting Republican in presidential elections. Democrat Steve Bullock is the current Governor of Montana and despite his popularity in the state, he still narrowly trails incumbent Senator Steve Daines, with only one of the last five polls showing Bullock ahead. Three show Daines as the frontrunner and one is a tie. Of the tossup races, this one is the most likely victory for the Republican incumbent.

North Carolina (Tillis vs Cunningham)

In the state of North Carolina, Senator Thom Tillis is in a tough spot. For over 2 months, polls have been consistently trending in favor of Democrat Cal Cunningham, with the most recent poll showing a lead for Tillis being released on June 3rd. With some expecting North Carolina to flip in favor of Joe Biden in the presidential race, Thom Tillis will need to fight if he wants to keep his Senate seat for another term.

For a more in depth look into senate polls, go to https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/

Thank you for reading and consider checking out my early electoral college predictions for the 2020 Presidential race!