State by State Electoral College Analysis: 2020 Predictions

With the election in only a few months, many people are coming forward with their own predictions on how voting day will play out. I've spent the last several months doing research on current polls and past election history to pinpoint what I think will happen in the 2020 election. Disclaimer: These predictions are very early and my opinions may change as new information and data is presented.

KEY:

Safe: 15+ point margin of victory

Likely: 5-14.9 point margin of victory

Lean: 1-4.9 point margin of victory

Tilt: .1-.9 point margin of victory

Alabama: Safe Republican (9 electoral votes)

This should come as no surprise. Recent polling averages show Trump holding an 18 point lead of former Vice President Biden. Alabama hasn't been carried by a Democrat since 1976 when the state voted in favor of Jimmy Carter.

Alaska: Likely Republican (3 electoral votes)

As Alaska has gone Republican in all of the last 12 elections and most recently went Democrat in 1964 for Lyndon B. Johnson, there is no doubt in my mind that Alaska will be carried in November by President Trump. The reason I've characterized the state as likely rather the safe is the margin of victory. In 2016, Trump received 51.3% of the Alaskan vote, a 14.7% lead over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Nationwide support for the president has decreased significantly so the margin of victory will likely be smaller in 2020 than that of 2016.

Arizona: Lean Democrat (11 electoral votes)

Arizona most recently went Democrat for Bill Clinton in 1996 and before that, Harry S. Truman in 1948. Those numbers don’t look amazing for Biden, however, he does have several things going for him. On March 8th, the former VP took the polling lead from Trump in the state of Arizona and has maintained it since. The lead peaked on June 30th at 4.8% and has since been stable at around 3 points. The other thing is the population growth in Phoenix. As Phoenix grows in population, the number of Democratic voters is rising at a higher rate than that of Republican voters, ultimately moving the state to the left.

Arkansas: Safe Republican (6 electoral votes)

The only poll done in Arkansas for the 2020 election gave Trump a 2 point lead over Biden. This would indicate a lean victory for President Trump. However, recent election history indicates a solid victory for the President. Arkansas is one of the few states in the country that is moving to the right, with the Republicans seeming to have a larger margin of victory in every election than the last.

California: Safe Democrat (55 electoral votes)

California being characterized as a safe state for the Democrats is no surprise. The election of 2016 was the 3rd consecutive election in which the Democratic nominee received more than 60% of the vote. California is one of the safest states in the country for the Democrats. This is suggested by both polls and recent election history.

Colorado: Likely Democrat (9 electoral votes)

In April, Biden held just a 4 point lead over Trump in the state of Colorado. That lead quickly grew to a 17.4 point lead by mid July. Since then, polling data has suggested the former Vice President holding a 13.3 point lead. While Colorado voted in favor of President Bush in 2000 and 2004, it has since moved to the left, with 270towin's consensus map showing a moderate Democratic advantage in the state.

Connecticut: Safe Democrat (7 electoral votes)

Like most states in the New England region of the United States, Connecticut is safe for the Democrats. Connecticut has voted for Democrats consistently since 1992 and isn't showing signs of voting Republican any time soon as Biden has over a 21 point lead over Trump.

Delaware: Safe Democrat (3 electoral votes)

Former Vice President Biden's home state of Delaware has been voting for Democrats consistently since 1992 and is likely going to continue to do so. Hillary Clinton's margin of victory in 2016 was down from the previous elections of 2008 and 2012, likely because Biden was on the ticket in those two elections. With Biden back on the ticket as the Presidential candidate, Delaware will most likely vote Democrat by a safe margin.

District of Columbia: Safe Democrat (3 electoral votes)

Washington D.C. is the safest place in the country to be won by the Democrats. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the District of Columbia with 90.5% of the vote and an 86.4 point margin of victory, with Donald Trump receiving 4.1% of the vote.

Florida: Tilt Republican (29 electoral votes)

While Biden leads Trump in the Floridian polling average by around 5 points, I find it hard to believe that the Sunshine State will stray from President Trump in 2020. Florida has voted in favor of the election winning candidate in 11 of the last 12 elections. The only time they voted against the election winner was in 1992 when they voted in favor of George H.W. Bush's re-election rather than for Bill Clinton. In recent history, when the incumbent President is an option, Florida generally votes in their favor. Although polls favor Biden, the state is still considered a tossup by most. For that reason, I characterize it in favor of President Trump.

Georgia: Tilt Republican (16 electoral votes)

In 2004, Georgia voted very strongly in favor of President George W. Bush over Democratic nominee, John Kerry. Since then, Georgia has narrowed up significantly. Like Arizona, this is largely due to population growth and a demographic shift. While I think that Georgia could begin to vote in favor of Democrats in the near future, as of 2020, I believe the state will very narrowly vote in favor of President Trump.

Hawaii: Safe Democrat (4 electoral votes)

Hawaii, the 50th and most recent state to join the union, has voted in a total of 15 elections. Of those 15 elections, Hawaii has voted in favor of the Republican Party twice, voting for Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984. The most recent poll to come out of Hawaii gave Biden a commanding 27 point lead over President Trump. For those reasons, I give Hawaii to Vice President Biden by a safe margin.

Idaho: Safe Republican (4 electoral votes)

Very little polling data has come out of Idaho leading up to this election so this prediction is based mostly on election history. Idaho hasn't voted in favor of a Democrat since the landslide victory of Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. This would indicate that Idaho is a safe victory for President Trump.

Illinois: Safe Democrat (20 electoral votes)

Similar to Idaho, the state of Illinois hasn't had much polling data put forward. President Obama in 2008 and 2012 and Secretary Clinton in 2016 carried Illinois by a safe margin. Democrats Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 carried the state by a high likely margin. This election data suggests that Illinois will be carried by Joe Biden by a safe margin.

Indiana: Safe Republican (11 electoral votes)

In 2016, President Trump carried the state of Indiana by almost 19 points. The current polling average in Indiana shows President Trump with a lead of just over 14 points. While polling data indicates a likely margin of victory for the president, I predict a safe margin of victory because Indiana is Vice President Pence's home state.

Iowa: Lean Republican (6 electoral votes)

Iowa is one of the hardest states for me to call. In 2016, President Trump's margin of victory in Iowa was the biggest in the last 5 elections, winning the state by 9.5 points. Although polling averages have been teetering back and forth between Trump and Biden, Trump currently holds around a 1 point lead. I'm the least confident in this prediction. Biden could very well carry Iowa like President Obama did in 2008 and 2012, however, I currently characterize the state in favor of Donald Trump.

Kansas: Safe Republican (6 electoral votes)

While current polling averages indicate a likely margin of victory for the President, election history says something else. Republicans have won 4 of the last 5 elections with more than a 20 point lead. The only exception being the election of 2008 when John McCain won by 14.9 points over Barack Obama, technically a likely margin of victory. For that reason, I believe Trump will carry Kansas by a safe margin.

Kentucky: Safe Republican (8 electoral votes)

In the state of Kentucky, all signs point to a safe victory for President Trump. The incumbent President has almost a 16 point polling lead over Biden, with poll after poll showing an extremely strong lead for the President. Plus, they've voted heavily Republican in every election since 2000.

Louisiana: Safe Republican (8 electoral votes)

While we don’t have polling data from the state of Louisiana, it's rather easy to predict that the state will go in favor of Donald Trump in 2020. The state is very red and election history shows Republicans consistently winning presidential elections by a safe margin.

Maine: State: Likely Democrat, District 1: Safe Democrat, District 2: Lean Republican (4 electoral votes)

Maine is one of the only states in the country that separates their electoral votes. The state of Maine receiving 2 votes and each congressional district receiving 1. In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried both the state at large and the 1st congressional district by likely and safe margins respectively and Biden is expected to do the same. Polling data tells us that Maine's 2nd congressional district is a tossup, although, Trump carried the district in 2016 and I have a hunch he'll do so again in 2020.

Maryland: Safe Democrat (10 electoral votes)

As of the most recent poll done in the state of Maryland, Biden holds a commanding lead of 24 points over President Trump. This is consistent with the state's voting history, as Democrats have won every presidential election in Maryland since 1992.

Massachusetts: Safe Democrat (11 electoral votes)

Massachusetts currently sits as one of the safest states for Vice President Biden. Polling averages give the former Vice President a close to 33 point lead over President Trump. The state has voted safely in favor of the Democratic Party in every election since 1988.

Michigan: Likely Democrat (16 electoral votes)

A state that voted in favor of President Trump in 2016, Michigan will likely flip in favor of Biden in 2020. 2016 was the first time since 1988 that Michigan went in favor of the Republicans. Democrats won Michigan in 2004 by a lean margin, in 2000 and 2012 by likely margins, and in 2008 by a safe margin. While some predict a Democratic lean in the state, election history and current polling data say something slightly different.

Minnesota: Lean Democrat (10 electoral votes)

Minnesota is one of the most consistently Democratic states in the country, voting blue in every election since 1976. Minnesota is the only state that didn't vote for Ronald Reagan in the elections of 1980 or 1984 (D.C. also never voted for Reagan but it's not a state). While Minnesota is consist, Democrats generally win by around 2 points, although, President Obama won the state by likely margins. Toward the end of June and most of July, the former Vice President held a 10 point polling lead. That has since narrowed up to around a 5 point lead. The state will likely continue to narrow and ultimately vote for Biden by a lean margin.

Mississippi: Likely Republican (6 electoral votes)

Mississippi has been a very safe state for Republicans for quite a long time. The only times that the state showed any sign of being even slightly competitive was in 2008 and 2012. McCain and Romney both carried Mississippi by likely rather than safe margins. This is largely due to President Barack Obama's ability to energize voters and his strong support among black voters. Biden has much of this same support.

Missouri: Likely Republican (10 electoral votes)

Once considered a swing state, Missouri has recently become reliable for the GOP. In late February, Trump led Biden by almost 9 points in Missouri. That lead slowly narrowed down to 2.4 points in early July and has since grown back to around 5 points. In 2016, Trump carried Missouri by 18.7 points. Obama came very close to flipping Missouri in 2008 when he lost the state by just .1%. Currently, Missouri is a likely state for the Republican Party.

Montana: Likely Republican (3 electoral votes)

Montana is an interesting state. They vote consistently Republican in Presidential elections, have a Democrat governor, and have both a Republican and Democrat senator. Once holding a strong lead of more than 20 points, President Trump's support has somewhat depleted in Montana. The President's lead has been slowly narrowing since a sharp decline in late April and currently sits just under 9%.

Nebraska: State/District 1/District 3: Safe Republican District 2: Lean Democrat (5 electoral votes)

Like Maine, Nebraska breaks up their electoral votes between their state at large and their congressional districts. Very little polling data has come out of the state of Nebraska for the 2020 election cycle. The data we have suggests a District 2 victory for Joe Biden with the rest of the states votes going to Trump. This is similar to the election of 2008 when John McCain took the state and Districts 1 and 3 while Barack Obama took District 2.

Nevada: Lean Democrat (6 electoral votes)

Voting for the winning candidate in 10 of the last 12 elections, Nevada has been a decent predictor of who will win the White House, only voting against the election winner in 1976 (voted in favor of Gerald Ford) and 2016 (voting in favor of Hillary Clinton). In the election of 2020, Nevada is predicted to stay faithful to the Democratic Party, however, the margin of victory is debatable. Biden's current polling lead is just barely in the likely range, polling around 7% better than Trump. If this lead holds up, my prediction may change. For now, I characterize Nevada as leaning Democrat.

New Hampshire: Likely Democrat (4 electoral votes)

Sometimes called "the south of the north," New Hampshire is the most right leaning state in the New England area of the United States. Clinton carried the state in 2016 by just .4% and it was the second closest state in the country. The current polling average in New Hampshire is trending in favor of Vice President Biden by around 9%.

New Jersey: Safe Democrat (14 electoral votes)

Currently holding a 20 point lead in the polling average, Joe Biden is expected to carry New Jersey safely. New Jersey consistently votes in favor of the Democratic Party and is one of the most liberal states in the country.

New Mexico: Likely Democrat (5 electoral votes)

In the last 7 elections, New Mexico was carried by the Republicans once. In 2004, George W. Bush took the state in his race against John Kerry. The most recent polls show Biden fairing relatively well in New Mexico, one poll showing him with a 14 point lead over Trump. New Mexico will likely go to the Democratic Party in 2020.

New York: Safe Democrat (29 electoral votes)

The Empire State is another that is safe to go to the Democrats in 2020. New York consistently votes in favor of Democrats by a margin of 20 points or more. The last time New York voted for a Republican president was the landslide victory of Ronald Reagan in 1984.

North Carolina: Tilt Republican (15 electoral votes)

North Carolina is another state that most people still classify as a tossup. Although Biden has held a narrow lead in the polling averages since February, the state has only given its electoral votes to a Democrat in 2 of the last 12 elections. Jimmy Carter won the state in 1976 and Barack Obama narrowly won the state in 2008. Despite the polling data, I still characterize the state for Donald Trump because Biden's polling lead is so narrow.

North Dakota: Safe Republican (3 electoral votes)

The most recent polls to come out of North Dakota are from the days of the Democratic primary. These polls show Joe Biden fairing better in the state against Trump than his competitors, but still not coming anywhere near the president. Trump will continued North Dakota's trend of voting for Republicans as they've done in the last 13 elections.

Ohio: Lean Republican (18 electoral votes)

This is another state that's considered by many to be a tossup. Ohio has voted for the election winner in every election since 1964. In fact, in the last 100 years, Ohio has only voted in favor of the person who lost the election twice. While Biden currently holds a very slight polling lead over Trump in the state of Ohio, I still expect the President to carry the state.

Oklahoma: Safe Republican (7 electoral votes)

Oklahoma is one of the safest and most consistently Republican states in the country. The state hasn't swung in favor of the Democrats since 1964. Oklahoma is safe for President Trump in 2020.

Oregon: Likely Democrat (7 electoral votes)

There is very little polling data from Oregon, however, election history tells us that the state is likely to go in favor of the Democrats. Oregon has gone blue in every election since 1988. The state of Oregon is experiencing steady population growth and is expected to receive an 8th electoral vote in the 2024 presidential election.

Pennsylvania: Lean Democrat (20 electoral votes)

Prior to the 2016 election, Pennsylvania had been riding a blue wave that began in 1992 with the election of Bill Clinton. In 2016, the Clinton campaign took Pennsylvania for granted, expecting an easy victory. The state ended up going for Donald Trump. Current polls are suggesting a Biden victory by around 6 points, however, I feel the margin of victory will be slightly smaller than that.

Rhode Island: Safe Democrat (4 electoral votes)

The state of Rhode Island, like previous states doesn't have a lot of polling data coming out of it. However, previous elections would indicate a very safe victory for Joe Biden, voting for Democrats in every presidential election since 1988.

South Carolina: Likely Republican (9 electoral votes)

In February, the polling average in South Carolina was favoring President Trump by about 12 points. Since then, that lead has narrowed down to around just 6 points. South Carolina has also voted Republican in every election since 1964, other than 1976 when they voted for Jimmy Carter. South Carolina will likely go to President Trump in 2020.

South Dakota: Safe Republican (3 electoral votes)

Both South and North Dakotas are safe for the GOP. With Republicans consistently winning by extremely large margins of victory, South Dakota is one of the safest Republican states in the country. We will definitely see it go in favor of Donald Trump in 2020.

Tennessee: Safe Republican (11 electoral votes)

While polls have narrowed from an almost 17 point red lead in February to an 11 point lead today, I still characterize the state of Tennessee as safe for the Republican Party. The state has continuously voted in favor of Republicans by greater and greater margins in every presidential election. I believe we'll see Tennessee vote in favor of Donald Trump by almost 30 points in 2020.

Texas: Tilt Republican (38 electoral votes)

Over the last decade, Texas has seen extremely rapid population growth. This growth has led to an uptick in Democratic voters. Formerly a safe state for the Republicans, Texas has moved significantly leftward, with some even calling it a complete tossup. The polling average in Texas is currently showing President Trump with a lead of less than 1 point. As of now, I call Texas in favor of the President. This is a state that the GOP requires in order to win the 2020 election. If Texas flipped for Vice President Biden, the Republicans would have no realistic chance at keeping the White House. In the coming decade, you will see Texas continue to be a major battleground state in presidential elections.

Utah: Likely Republican (6 electoral votes)

In 2012, Mitt Romney saw his biggest margin of victory in any state over Barack Obama when he took Utah by a margin of 72.8% to 24.8%. President Trump didn't see such numbers. Utah's large Mormon population didn't take a huge liking to Trump, giving him only 45.5% of the vote over Clinton's 27.5%. Many of Utah's Mormon voters sided with Evan McMullin, a Mormon conservative. Trump currently leads Biden in Utah by just 11 points, down from almost 20 points in late February. Given Mitt Romney's popularity in the state, a Romney endorsement of Joe Biden may increase Biden's numbers and narrow the margin even more. The state will still likely go to President Trump.

Vermont: Safe Democrat (3 electoral votes)

Vermont, home state of Senator Bernie Sanders, used to go solidly Republican. In 1992, the state swung in favor of Bill Clinton and has gone for the Democrats ever since. In 2016, Clinton carried the state by a margin of over 25 points, defeating Trump by 55.7% to 29.8%. The state is, in 2020, considered safe for the Democrats.

Virginia: Likely Democrat (13 electoral votes)

Like Vermont, Virginia used to consistently vote in favor of the GOP. In 2008, the state voted in favor of Barack Obama and has been electing Democrats to political office ever since. Not just for president, but for most statewide elected offices. This is likely caused by the rapid population growth surrounding D.C. While there is a slight chance that the state could revert back to voting for Republicans, that is unlikely. Joe Biden currently has a polling lead of around 11% over President Trump in Virginia.

Washington: Safe Democrat (12 electoral votes)

Voting Democrat in every presidential election since 1988, the state of Washington is a large blue stronghold. Biden's current lead is almost 27 points over Trump. This indicates a safe victory for the former Vice President.

West Virginia: Safe Republican (5 electoral votes)

The most recent poll to come out of West Virginia was conducted in January and shows President Trump with a commanding lead over Joe Biden, winning in the poll 66% to 31%. Since the election of 2000, West Virginia has voted in favor of Republicans and the margin of victory has grown wider and wider, making the state safe for the Republican Party.

Wisconsin: Lean Democrat (10 electoral votes)

In 2016, Wisconsin voted in favor of a Republican candidate for the first time since 1984. This came as a surprise to many who considered the rust belt states to be a very easy win for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Secretary Clinton lost the state by just .7%, one of the narrowest margins in the 2016 election. With a current polling lead of about 7%, Joe Biden expected to take the state of Wisconsin. I characterize it as lean instead of likely because it will most likely narrow up as the election gets closer.

Wyoming: Safe Republican (3 electoral votes)

The state of Wyoming is another very consistent state for the GOP, having not voted for a Democrat since Johnson's 1964 landslide victory. Usually giving around 65% of the vote to the Republican candidate, Wyoming is a very safe state for President Trump going into the election of 2020.

This all adds up to a narrow Biden victory of 290 electoral votes to 248. At the end of the day, a victory is a victory no matter how narrow. While this prediction is early, I don’t see Vice President Biden losing too much ground against President Trump. You never know what could ultimately happen, but right now, I predict Biden will win the election and become the 46th President of the United States.

For a look at the polling data I used to calculate my predictions, go to https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls

To check out past election history, go to https://www.270towin.com/states/