Can Joe Biden Win 400 Electoral Votes

During the 2020 election season, I've spent a lot of my free time researching election history, voting patterns, political ideologies, party platforms, and both past and recent polls. I've been enjoying looking at all of the different possible outcomes of this election and determining just how likely they are to occur. In my research, I've found that, while unlikely, Joe Biden receiving 400 electoral votes isn't completely outside the realm of possibility. In order to accomplish this, however, there are a few key states in which Biden would need to direct more of his attention and campaign funds.

Biden's most likely path to 270 is by winning the rustbelt. In 2016, Donald Trump won the states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania by very narrow margins. These are three states that were all carried by Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. The most likely state to turn blue in 2020 is Michigan. With the popularity of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer following the COVID-19 pandemic and polling numbers indicating a very strong lead for Biden, he is strongly expected to flip the state. If Biden can flip these states back in favor of the Democratic Party, as he's expected to do, he would win the presidency with 278 electoral votes. That, however, is a far cry from 400.

The next line of states Biden would need to flip are Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina. While slightly more difficult than the rustbelt, many political analysts are putting at least two of the three states in Biden's column. Arizona is considered the most likely of the three to flip for Biden, as the state's demographics are shifting to the left. It also doesn't hurt that Biden received an official endorsement from the family of former Arizona Senator John McCain. While polls show both Florida and North Carolina potentially voting in either direction, we're generally seeing them favor Biden. This is slightly impressive because while Florida is a swing state, North Carolina generally votes in favor of the Republican Party. North Carolina hasn't voted for a Democrat in a presidential race since 2008 when they flipped in favor of Barack Obama. If these states all flipped in favor of Biden, he would receive 333 electoral votes, still shy of 400. I see this scenario, along with the addition of Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, to be Biden's best realistic victory.

The most crucial states for a 400 electoral vote victory for Biden are the states of Texas, Georgia, and Ohio. These are all states in which Trump has had a narrow but consistent lead for most of the race. Currently, the closest polling average of these three states is in the state of Texas, where Trump holds just a 1.1 point lead. Biden holds a 1 point lead among registered voters while Trump holds a 2 point lead among likely voters. In 2016, the polls underestimated Democrats in Texas, with polls suggesting an almost 12 point margin of victory for Trump. On Election Day, his margin of victory was just 9 points. If that difference is applied to our 2020 polls, Biden would carry the state of Texas by 1.6 points. The next closest race is in the state of Georgia, where Trump holds a lead of 1.5 points over the former Vice President. While a Biden victory isn't impossible, it's unlikely, as Georgia voted to the right of polls in the 2016 election. Then is the state of Ohio, where President Trump has a current lead of 2 points. In 2016, Ohio voted almost 6 points to right of what polls were suggesting. Like both Georgia and Texas, an Ohio victory for Biden is very unlikely. Joe Biden would need to manage a victory in all three of these states in order to break 400 electoral votes, with all of these states adding up to a victory of 405 to 133.

If Biden won all of these states, he would likely also win the state of Iowa, Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, and Maine's 2nd congressional district. This would give him a grand total of 413 electoral votes. A Democrat hasn't received over 400 votes from the electoral college since 1964 when Lyndon B. Johnson won in a landslide over Republican opponent Barry M. Goldwater. While a 400+ electoral college victory is highly unlikely for Joe Biden, its not a complete impossibility. Biden would need to win all nine states mentioned in this article in order to win over 400 votes. This would require a very large shift in his current polling numbers in several key, generally Republican leaning, states.

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