2022 Senate Race Early Breakdown

I was hoping to put together an early 2022 Senate prediction but there’s just too much up in the air to make any kind of prediction. It all depends on the candidates and the efficiency and accomplishments of the Biden administration. I will, however, give a rundown of the races that are up in the air and that could depend largely on a number of different factors.

1. The race in New Hampshire is a big question mark right now. As of today, the incumbent Democratic senator, Maggie Hassan, only has one declared challenger. Sen. Hassan is relatively popular in New Hampshire and would beat almost anyone who ran against her. Key word: almost. New Hampshire’s incumbent Republican governor, Chris Sununu, is considering a run for senate. Gov. Sununu would have a very good chance of winning the race and flipping the seat for the Republicans. If the race came down to Hassan vs Sununu, I would bet on Gov. Sununu taking the race considering his immense popularity among his constituents. However, if he doesn’t run, the race would almost certainly go to incumbent Sen. Hassan.

2. North Carolina senator Richard Burr is just one of five senate Republicans retiring in 2022. His seat will be hotly contested, as the North Carolina senate race in 2020 was decided by less than 2 points. His retirement removes the incumbency advantage from the playing field and results in an even starting point for both the Republican and the Democrat running. So far, five Republicans, five Democrats, one Libertarian, and one Independent have declared their candidacy, totaling 12 candidates going into the primary season. North Carolina is generally a Republican leaning state that sometimes flips for the Democrats. On a generic ballot, I would bet on the seat staying in the Republican column but truly anything is possible.

3. Another seat that will be hotly contested is in Pennsylvania. Similar to North Carolina, Pennsylvania Republican incumbent Pat Toomey is retiring. In this race, there are currently five Republicans and eight Democrats who have declared candidacy, making this yet another packed field. In 2018, incumbent Democratic senator Bob Casey Jr. won his senate seat by just over 13 points. While this displays that Pennsylvania could very easily go to a Democrat, there are still several things to consider. Firstly, in 2020, Pennsylvania voted for Joe Biden by less than 1 point. Prior to 2016, Pennsylvania was considered a state that the Democratic Party nearly had on lock. This is demonstrative of the demographic shift going on in the United States, with progressive young people moving South to states like Georgia and Arizona. Again, Pennsylvania is completely up in the air and anything could happen.

4 and 5. Two states whose senate races are in similar positions are the states of Georgia and Arizona. Both states had a senate special election in 2020, with Georgia electing Raphael Warnock and Arizona electing Mark Kelly. Both flips for the Democratic Party. Senators Warnock and Kelly will both be defending their seats in 2022 and seeking a full 6 year term. Both states are also recent flips for the Democrats, neither state having voted a Democrat into office since the 90s. Demographic trends and an increase in voter turnout would suggest that the Democratic incumbents will keep their seats, however, we can’t be completely certain of this.

6. Moving back to retiring incumbents, Republican Rob Portman is not seeking re-election in 2022. Personally, I don’t see this race going to Democrats easily. For nearly 70 year, Ohio voted in favor of presidential election winners, making it a bellwether state. In 2020, it lost bellwether status by voting for Donald Trump over Joe Biden, similar to previous bellwether state, Missouri, which also had a long history of voting for election winners until 2008 when the state voted for McCain over Obama. Since then, Missouri has consistently elected Republicans. In my opinion, Ohio will follow suit. Nevertheless, the state has been a swing state in the past and could very well elect a Democrat again.

Two other states, Missouri and Alabama, have retiring Republican incumbents as well but they will almost certainly be filled by another Republican. As for states like Iowa and Wisconsin, both states having Republican incumbents who are seeking re-election, there currently isn’t enough data to suggest how the race is going to go. Similar to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin has been moving to the right on the political spectrum despite voting for Joe Biden and similar to Ohio, Iowa is beginning to vote for Republicans more consistently. Both sets of states, Pennsylvania/Wisconsin and Ohio/Iowa, tend to vote together on a presidential level. States like Alaska are slowly moving leftward and could elect a Democrat in a complete election upset but will more than likely elect another Republican in 2022.

If the election were held today, Democrats would have a good chance of expanding their majority given president Biden's relative popularity. However, the 2022 midterm elections are a year and a half away. With the White House currently occupied by a Democrat and the party holding the narrowest possible senate majority, expanding that majority seems highly unlikely. Historically, the party holding the White House loses seats in both the house and senate during their first midterm election.

Thank you so much for reading! If you liked my analysis, subscribe to my blog and get notified when I post!