2020 Presidential Election: 80 Days Away

2020 has been a very interesting (and often times overwhelming) year for all of us. Between the COVID-19 pandemic, the terrible killings of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, and countless others, and the blatant ignorance shown by so many in these times of crisis, many people have been feeling completely out of control. One thing that helps me feel grounded is politics and specifically, looking into the upcoming elections in November, 2020.

At the forefront of our election season is the presidential race between former Vice President and presumptive Democratic Nominee, Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. Current polls show Biden holding a commanding lead over Trump, with a national polling lead of around 8%. This, however, is not a definite sign of an outright Biden victory. Let's not forget that the polls weren't entirely accurate in 2016, predicting a large victory for Hillary Clinton. While Clinton won the popular vote, she failed to get an electoral lead over Trump (232-306). Polls are a decent way of gaging how a candidate is doing but are never going to be a completely accurate tell into how the real general election will play out.

As of today, Biden has many potential paths to 270. If Biden flipped Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, he would win the election. If he flipped Texas alone, he would win the election. If he flipped Wisconsin and Florida, he would win the election. Those are just a few examples of Biden's many paths to 270.

Luckily for Biden, he's predicted to flip most of those states and several others. The former Vice President is currently leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and in Florida. He's also leading in key states such as Ohio, Arizona, and North Carolina. These leads are all much better than that of former Secretary Clinton back in 2016.

Biden also trails Trump extremely narrowly in states that were once considered to be safe for the Republican Party. Trump leads Biden in both Texas and Georgia by less than a single percentage point. No Democrat has turned Texas blue since Jimmy Carter swept the south in the election of 1976. If Biden could accomplish flipping Texas, he would be guaranteed a victory in November.

There are two reasons for a Biden lead (or slight trailing) in key swing states and formerly safe Republican states. First, states like Arizona, Georgia, and Texas have growing Democratic populations. Phoenix, Austin, Atlanta, and Houston are some of the fastest-growing cities in the United States. The people moving to these cities are often young voters, many of whom are Democrats. Second, due to a rather poor response to both the COVID-19 pandemic and the BLM movement, President Trump is becoming less and less popular among right leaning Independents and some Republicans. These two key factors could both be playing into Trump's trailing in the polls.